Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
