Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
